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1. Five-line brief
- 25% tariff on mid‑to‑heavy duty trucks planned from Nov 1 (reaffirmed Oct 6).
- Import price shock → delayed fleet replacement and spec downgrades likely.
- North America regionalization (US/MX/CA) to accelerate; offshore imports face headwinds.
- Korea exposure: components/electronics, finished commercial vehicles, metals, logistics.
- Playbook: HS-code mapping, localization, pass‑through, mix optimization, FX/logistics risk control.
2. Global impact: pricing, demand, supply chain
- Pricing & demand: A flat 25% levy lifts landed cost. Expect procurement delays and TCO re‑calculation across fleets.
- Supply chain: USMCA regionalization (final assembly in Mexico, content in US/CA) to mitigate duties; offshore BOMs face margin compression.
- Component cascade: Engines, chassis, transmissions, power electronics repriced; dual‑sourcing and simplified BOMs where feasible.
- Electrification variable: e‑truck parity re‑assessed as battery/charging CAPEX trades off against duty burden on imports.
3. Korea impact map: upstream → downstream
| Area | Impact | Actions now |
|---|---|---|
| Components / electronics | US-bound order rescheduling; unit price renegotiations | Check index-linked clauses, penalties, lead-time buffers, HS exposure |
| Finished commercial vehicles | Import competitiveness down; NA local assembly more viable | Assess SKD/CKD, USMCA content rules, certification/customs pathways |
| Metals (steel/non‑ferrous) | Higher demand volatility; spread management | Lock index-linked pricing; explore adjacent demand (construction/agri) |
| Logistics / distribution | Higher vehicle procurement cost → freight rate pressure | TCO recalculation; staged pass‑through; contract renewals with surcharge triggers |
| EV supply chain | Incentives to localize packs/motors in NA | Track tax credits; partner with NA Tier‑1s; sequence capex with policy |
4. Response playbook (corp/gov)
- Corporates — next 30 days: Map HS-code exposure; refresh price books (duty/freight/FX); resequence production & shipping; prep tiered pass‑through comms.
- Corporates — next 3–12 months: Build localization roadmap (US/MX assembly; content ratios); dual‑source critical parts; renegotiate contracts with tariff triggers/grace periods; rebalance model mix.
- Government/associations: Industry hotline; customs/port bottleneck relief; trade finance/guarantees for working capital; origin rules guidance.
5. Timeline & checklist
- Oct 6 (local): Tariff plan reaffirmed.
- Through late Oct: Guidance, repricing, PO adjustments, production rescheduling.
- Nov 1: Tariff in force (planned) — monitor customs data & dealer pricing.
Operational checklist
- HS-code map of sales/procurement; USMCA origin compliance
- Shortlist parts for NA localization; assess Mexico assembly/JVs
- Define pass‑through ladder; prepare customer notification templates
- Hedge FX; add safety time to logistics; monitor customs clearance times
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