Contents
1. Five-line brief
- 25% tariff on mid‑to‑heavy duty trucks planned from Nov 1 (reaffirmed Oct 6).
- Import price shock → delayed fleet replacement and spec downgrades likely.
- North America regionalization (US/MX/CA) to accelerate; offshore imports face headwinds.
- Korea exposure: components/electronics, finished commercial vehicles, metals, logistics.
- Playbook: HS-code mapping, localization, pass‑through, mix optimization, FX/logistics risk control.
2. Global impact: pricing, demand, supply chain
- Pricing & demand: A flat 25% levy lifts landed cost. Expect procurement delays and TCO re‑calculation across fleets.
- Supply chain: USMCA regionalization (final assembly in Mexico, content in US/CA) to mitigate duties; offshore BOMs face margin compression.
- Component cascade: Engines, chassis, transmissions, power electronics repriced; dual‑sourcing and simplified BOMs where feasible.
- Electrification variable: e‑truck parity re‑assessed as battery/charging CAPEX trades off against duty burden on imports.
3. Korea impact map: upstream → downstream
| Area | Impact | Actions now |
|---|---|---|
| Components / electronics | US-bound order rescheduling; unit price renegotiations | Check index-linked clauses, penalties, lead-time buffers, HS exposure |
| Finished commercial vehicles | Import competitiveness down; NA local assembly more viable | Assess SKD/CKD, USMCA content rules, certification/customs pathways |
| Metals (steel/non‑ferrous) | Higher demand volatility; spread management | Lock index-linked pricing; explore adjacent demand (construction/agri) |
| Logistics / distribution | Higher vehicle procurement cost → freight rate pressure | TCO recalculation; staged pass‑through; contract renewals with surcharge triggers |
| EV supply chain | Incentives to localize packs/motors in NA | Track tax credits; partner with NA Tier‑1s; sequence capex with policy |
4. Response playbook (corp/gov)
- Corporates — next 30 days: Map HS-code exposure; refresh price books (duty/freight/FX); resequence production & shipping; prep tiered pass‑through comms.
- Corporates — next 3–12 months: Build localization roadmap (US/MX assembly; content ratios); dual‑source critical parts; renegotiate contracts with tariff triggers/grace periods; rebalance model mix.
- Government/associations: Industry hotline; customs/port bottleneck relief; trade finance/guarantees for working capital; origin rules guidance.
5. Timeline & checklist
- Oct 6 (local): Tariff plan reaffirmed.
- Through late Oct: Guidance, repricing, PO adjustments, production rescheduling.
- Nov 1: Tariff in force (planned) — monitor customs data & dealer pricing.
Operational checklist
- HS-code map of sales/procurement; USMCA origin compliance
- Shortlist parts for NA localization; assess Mexico assembly/JVs
- Define pass‑through ladder; prepare customer notification templates
- Hedge FX; add safety time to logistics; monitor customs clearance times
6. FAQ
Which vehicles are covered?
Mid‑ to heavy‑duty commercial trucks; final scope follows customs/HS classifications and may vary by GVW/spec.
Do existing orders get hit?
Duties typically apply by customs clearance date. Rework shipping/clearance schedules to reduce exposure.
Top priority for Korean firms?
Three fronts: HS‑code impact mapping, NA localization roadmap, and contract renegotiation for tariff clauses.
7. Bottom line
The 25% tariff is a blunt cost shock that will reorder price ladders and sourcing maps. Early movers that localize content, pre‑wire pass‑throughs, and rebalance mixes will defend margins and capture share while slower peers adjust.
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